Beavers win the Civil War

Oregon State defeated Oregon in the 330th Civil War 57-54. The Ducks led for most of the first half due to shooting 7-10 on 3 pointers, but the Beavers were able to make the needed adjustments at halftime and the Ducks shot only 3-13 in 3 pointers in the second half.

With the win, the Beavers moved to 10-10 on the season and 4-5 in Pac-10 play. The Ducks on the other hand finished the first half of the Pac-10 schedule 0-9 and look to be good candidates to join last years Beaver squad as the only teams to go 0-18 in Pac-10 play.

NBA Top 10 Plays 1/30/09

Rudy Fernandez's Top 10 Dunks

NBA Top 5 Plays 1/29/09

Josh Smith

The Saga Ends

Memphis signed Darius Miles to a contract through the end of the year. This essentially ends any sort of legal challenge that the Blazers might have had over the intentions of the Grizzlies signing Miles solely to harm the Blazers' salary cap standing.

This should hopefully end the saga of Darius Miles' knee comeback as it relates to the Trailblazers. While it is interesting that Memphis thinks that Miles can back as a backup center (imagine him trying to guard Greg Oden on the block), it is good that he is able to have another shot at realizing the potential that he came into the association with.

Also as there is now no way the Blazers would act on their threat to pursue legal action in the infamous e-mail, the other GMs of the NBA should stop playing the role of offended playmate and begin to discuss ways to pick up the expiring contract that is Raef LaFrentz.

A Tale of Two Undersized Point Guards

While Dwight Howard will go down as the best player to be drafted in the 2004 NBA draft, there was another story line that was being played out later on in the first round. Jameer Nelson, the college player of the year, kept on getting bypassed in favor of players straight from high school. While some of those players (Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, J.R. Smith) have become quality NBA players and some (Dorrell Wright, Robert Swift) haven't done much in the league, the selection that must have hurt most was the Blazers selecting Sebastian Telfair. These two point guards shared a spirited pre-draft tryout for the Clippers, with the two playing to a draw. But while Telfair was watching the draft with Jay-Z, Nelson was in attendance at the draft and had to wait almost 2 hours before his name was called. After being drafted Jameer Nelson quickly declared:

I am the steal of the draft. And I am going to go out there and play with a chip on my shoulder.

The difference in NBA readiness of these two players quickly became apparent, as Nelson had a much more productive rookie campaign than did Telfair. While Telfair was getting caught up in several off of the court shenanigans over the next several years and was unable to develop a consistent outside shot, Nelson was improving his game each year.

Nelson's superiority over the other undersized point guard of his draft class was etched in stone Thursday when he was named to the NBA All-Star team. Telfair on the other hand toils in semi-obscurity in Minnesota having been part of the trades that lead to Brandon Roy ending up in Portland and the trade that sent Kevin Garnett to Boston. Perhaps Sebastian should have spoken to Omar Cook about how fleeting fame can be in the NBA and basketball.

NBA Top 10 Plays 1/28/09

Is a Franchise Center Still Needed?

Periodically there are discussions about whether or not the Blazers made the correct decision drafting Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant in the 2007 NBA Draft. With Kevin Durant playing at an All-Star level this season and Greg Oden coming off of micro-fracture surgery most people are siding with Durant being the better player. Sometimes they will note the recent NBA champions that didn't have a dominant center.

That several recent NBA champs haven't had an All-Star caliber player at the center position is undeniable. The list of starting centers for NBA champions for the last 15 years is:

• 2008-Kendrick Perkins
• 2007-Francisco Elson
• 2006-Shaquille O'Neal
• 2005-Rasho Nesterovic
• 2004-Ben Wallace
• 2003-David Robinson
• 2002-Shaquille O'Neal
• 2001-Shaquille O'Neal
• 2000-Shaquille O'Neal
• 1999-David Robinson
• 1998-Luc Longley
• 1997-Luc Longley
• 1996-Luc Longley
• 1995-Hakeem Olawujon
• 1994-Hakeem Olawujon

From the looks of this list, over the course of the last 5 years or so, having a dominant center hasn't been required to win a championship. The success of the Jordan-led Bulls also support the notion that not having a dominant center isn't a show stopper when it comes to winning championships. This is not to say that the center position has become marginalized in today's NBA game. Dominant centers provide a couple of critical things when winning championships is the goal. These things are:

1. Rebounding
2. An interior offensive threat
3. Interior Defense

Historically, the center has been the lead guy for giving those 3 things to the team. However, it today's NBA positions are much more fluid. Tim Duncan is widely regarded as the greatest power forward in the history of the game when he is largely a forward in name only as he plays the role of the center even though in the media guide he is listed as a forward. Where those 3 key factors come from isn't really important, but it is important that a team has them. The recent Boston, Detroit and San Antonio title teams had Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Tim Duncan respectively. Both of these players provide all of the required factors from the power forward position.

In one section of the book "Moneyball", the Oakland athletics are contemplating how they are going to replace the league MVP. While they wouldn't be able to replace the production of Jeremy Giambi with one player, they realized that if the rest of the team were able to set up their production to make up for the loss of a key component of their offense the year prior. Why the tangent into baseball? Because that is very similar to what the Bulls did during their championship runs. The Bulls were never able to obtain an elite center, yet they were one of most successful teams ever. This is obtain used to assert Michael Jordan's primacy in the NBA. However upon closer inspection, the Bulls were able to get the important production of the center position from other positions on the floor. Lets look at each of the components in more depth:

Rebounding
During his 3 years in Chicago, Dennis Rodman led the league in rebounding. This helped the Bulls be one of the best rebounding teams in the league during those years as they finished 1,2,1 in the league in terms of offensive rebound% during those three years. The rebounding also went further than just Rodman cleaning the glass. Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen were two of the best rebounders at their positions in NBA history as well.

An Interior Offensive Presence
As good of a rebounder as Rodman was, at this point in his career he was just as poor at scoring the basketball. Thus he didn't give the Bulls the same production that the Spurs were able to get out of their centers. However they Bulls were able to get their inside scoring from...Michael Jordan. From an interview with Tex Winter:

Observers like to point out that Jordan played on a Chicago Bulls team with no great center, but Winter always countered that Jordan was a great post-up player and in essence was the premier post weapon of his time.

Interior Defense
This is something that is easier to come across as there are usually multiple good defensive centers available. The Bulls were able to cobble together this with Rodman doing the dirty work inside and getting help from Jordan and Pippen from the perimeter.

Thus we see that while a franchise center isn't strictly necessary, the things that a franchise center brings to the table are. But they can be found at other positions provided those players make it a mission to rebound, score in the paint, etc.

NBA Top 5 1/27/09

NBA Top 10 Plays 1/26/09

Play #4 was my favorite. It is the first time that I can recall Brandon Roy dunking on someone's head. Usually he gets some crafty layup to fall in situations like that. Maybe he is getting tired of the talk that he isn't athletic.

Oregon State Getting Some National Attention

Looks like Oregon State made the ESPN.com College Basketball front page over the weekend for sweeping the Bay Area school this week in Pac-10 play.

This is nice to see and a stark contrast to every mention of OSU basketball last year on ESPN.com seemed to be about how they were trying to avoid the first 0-18 conference record in Pac-10 history.

NBA Top 10 1/25/09

NBA Top 10 1/24/09

NBA Top 10 1/23/09

Beavers Take Down Cal

Oregon State made a late push and defeated Cal 69-65 in Berkley. This is probably a bigger victory than the slump busting victory over USC earlier in the month.

This has been a busy week for Coach Robinson as he flew to Washington DC for his brother-in-law's inauguration as President of the United States, slept in the Lincoln Bedroom in the White House, and then met back up with the team in California. Despite this, the Beavers shook off a rough first half and closed it out in the second half.

I caught the last 2 minutes of the game on the radio after my son went to bed. What came through was that each time the Beavers had the ball during those 2 minutes, they went out and had good possessions that resulted not only in points, but resulted in good things happening. First Roeland Schaftnaar got an open look at a 3 pointer. Then Omari Johnson drew a foul and made 1 of 2 foul shots. And then Calvin Haynes got a layup to seal the deal. Each possession never seemed out of sorts, the Beavers during those last 2 minutes knew what they needed to do and how they were going to do it. Calvin Haynes said this about the game:

"Emotions were high and I think we had a lot at stake and we came out gunning," Haynes said. "We wanted to get it down to a close game and what are we going to do? Are we going to break down or keep fighting? It comes down to what we do in practice. This isn't anything new."

Based on the first 16 games I think that what will separate Craig Robinson's tenure at Oregon State from the tenure of Jay John (who, incidentally was on the Cal sideline as an Assistant Coach) is this preparation. There were many times in end game scenarios where the Beavers just didn't seem to have their stuff together. This doesn't seem to be the case under the First Brother-in-law.



(Hat Tip on the photo to Building the Dam)

NBA Top 5 1/22/09

Western Conference Playoff Picture

Presently the Western Conference playoff race looks like this:

Seed	Team	W	L	GB
1	Lakers	33	8	-
2	Spurs	28	13	5
3	Hornets	26	13	6
4	Nuggets	28	15	6
5	Rockets	27	16	7
6	Trailblazers	25	17	8.5
7	Jazz	25	18	9
8	Suns	23	17	9.5
9	Mavericks	24	18	9.5

Of these 9 teams, 8 are going to make the playoffs while 1 is going to have an early vacation. There is a lot of chatter and discussion about which team is going to get a couple of ping pong balls into the lottery and which ones will have an opportunity to win a championship.

My feeling is that the Mavericks are going to not make the playoffs. There are a lot of people who think that a veteran team like Dallas will find a way to turn it on and make a playoff push and kick the Blazers and their youthiness out. This line of thought forgets that this isn't the same team that lost in the NBA Finals 3 years ago. The only core players that remain are Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse and Erick Dampier. Everyone else is new and outside of Jason Kidd don't have playoff experience. Jason Kidd is 35 which is close to 64 in NBA years.

When I was younger, I would look at the sports section and pour over the standings. I would be very concerned if the Bulls were a half game behind the Hawks even if it was mid-January. If I still looked that the standings the same way as I did when I was 10, I might think that the experience and battle-testedness would figure out a way to get into the playoffs. What changed how I look at the standings page is the growth of more powerful statistics than just simple Win/Loss records. Based on the application of these statistics, specifically the calculation of the playoff odds it seems pretty clear that the Mavericks have a very small chance of making the playoffs. Here are some charts of the teams that seem most likely to be in the mix for the final playoff spot in the West. Things don't look promising for Dallas. Maybe trading away Devin Harris wasn't such a good idea after all.

Dallas:


Portland:


Phoenix:


Utah:

NBA Top 10 1/21/09

There is no way that Kobe's play on the #2 highlight was a pass. That was a shot all the way.

Blazer-Cavs Links

The Blazers and the Cavs played tonight in Portland with Cleveland winning 104-98. This loss was largely due to the Blazers not having any answer to LeBron. This in and of itself isn't surprising as nobody in the league has an answer to LeBron.

Some of the best links about the game (written both before and after tip-off) were these:

• A Media Row report
• A focus on LeBron's pre-game routine
• One of the more entertaining pieces I have seen in a while, LeBron James being compared to an artificially created basketball cyborg from the future. 

The Transitive Property and College Football

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how the logic used to claim Utah was the national champion left much to be desired. Someone else went ahead and created a web app that will create a chain of logic such that of the 120 teams in Division 1-A all but 5 can make a claim to the national championship through the transitive property. Interesting stuff.

Hat Tip to College Game Balls

NBA Top 5 1/20/09

The top play is pretty sweet

The Spaniard is the 4th Dunker

While I was hoping that Russell Westbrook would be in the slam dunk contest, Rudy Fernandez has named to be the 4th and final dunker in the NBA Slam Dunk Contest. From the reports from practice, Rudy is working on integrating some soccer style tricks into his dunking bag of tricks to overcome his relative lack of athleticism.

Even if he loses to Dwight Howard, Rudy will always have the Olympics.

NBA Top 10 1/19/09

The Cardinals in the Superbowl

Kurt Warner threw 4 touchdown passes to lead the Arizona Cardinals to their first Super Bowl where they will face the Pittsburgh Steelers. A couple of thoughts:

First, where was all of this during the championship round of my fantasy league Kurt? Your poor play earned me only 1 point. Thanks a lot for 2nd place.

Second, as I don't have a TV I haven't seen either of the 2 Super Bowl combatants play, but I would have to think that the Steelers will open are healthy favorites due to their core of the team already owning Super Bowl rings.

Third, having tracked the Cardinals throughout the season due to Kurt Warner being my QB on my fantasy squad, I really didn't think that the Cardinals had this in them. I thought that their collective goose was cooked once they got thumped by New England. I guess I was wrong about that.

Why Russell Westbrook should be the 4th Dunker

Hopefully this dunk will seal up Russell Westbrook being the 4th dunker in the NBA Slam Dunk Contest

NBA Top 5 Plays 1/18/09

NBA Top 10 1/17/09

NBA Top 10 Plays 1/16/09

If LeBron keeps on dunking like he did in the #3 play, the NBA is going to need some new baskets.

NBA Top 5 Plays 1/15/09

Thursday's Top 5 - Funny bloopers are a click away

Bayless has the dunk of the night

As anticipated, Jerryd Bayless' dunk against the Nets earned him dunk of the night honors.


Dunk of the Night - Click here for this week’s top video clips

Greg Oden's Rookie Progression

In looking at the Greg Oden/Brook Lopez matchup in last nights Blazers/Nets tilt, there is one more comparison to the player that most material respects is closest to Greg Oden. That player is Dwight Howard. Dwight is the only other center in recent history to have many of the same physical tools as Greg and with those tools become a physical force in the NBA. Centers like Yao Ming and Brook Lopez are very different because they are rely more on finesse than on strength. Also of the other potentially great centers, only Howard is alike Greg in their limited college experience (Howard skipped it entirely, Oden play half a season due to a wrist injury).

Here are the rookie year stats for Dwight Howard and Greg Oden per 36 minutes:

Player	FG%	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	PTS	PF
Dwight Howard	.520	.671	11.1	1.0	1.8	13.2	3.1
Greg Oden	.531	.649	11.0	1.1	1.7	12.6	6.0

The two sets of numbers are exceedingly similar. I think that once Oden is able to reduce his foul rate, which should come as he has played about 5 months of organized competitive basketball in the last 2 years, he should provide the inside presence the Blazers were looking for when they drafted him.

Kevin Love Tricky Shots

In addition to being able to throw a full court chest pass, Kevin Love has some trick shots up his sleeves too. Which completely blows the mind of the interviewer.

Beavers lose to the Cougs

Oregon State lost a close one tonight, falling 61-57 to Washington State. While it is preferable to win such games, the Beavers are getting better. It seems like they are becoming a team that can hang with most teams at home which isn't something that they could do last season. Coach Robinson had this to say about the game:

This was by far one of our best games. That was a tough team, and it's hard to play teams that are similar to you. I thought our guys hung right in there and it's just too bad. Somebody has to lose a game like that and tonight it was us.

Jerryd Bayless throwing it down

Jerryd Bayless came through with his best day as a pro scoring 23 points on 9 shots to help the Blazers beat the Nets 105-99. He also had a dunk that will probably be shown on Sportscenter multiple times, although if you have seen his high school highlight reel, you already know that he could dunk like this.

(Hat Tip on the video to BlazersEdge)

Greg Oden vs. Brook Lopez

With Portland coming to New Jersey to play the Nets, sights have turned towards the match-up between rookie centers Greg Oden and Brook Lopez. Some people have started questioning whether Lopez will be a more productive pro than Oden. I think that the question of who will be a more productive pro is a little flawed as is the suggestion that Lopez has completely outplayed Oden to date in their rookie campaigns.

Lopez is averaging 10.8 points and grabbing 8.2 rebounds a game. Compare that to Oden's averages of 8.1 points and 7.1 rebounds in 7 fewer minutes. On what planet is averaging 2.7 points and 1.2 rebounds more a game in completely outplaying someone? This is 2009 and we have many more ways to gage productivity than simple average based on unequal playing time. If you look that their numbers per 36 minutes, they are essentially the same. Also if we look at stats like Points Scored or Allowed per 100 possessions, it becomes pretty clear who is having a more productive year. First the Blazers score 10 more points per 100 possessions while Oden is on the floor than the Nets score with Lopez on the court while the both give up the same amount of points. Huge advantage Blazers.

Further look at the Nets' roster. Behind Devin Harris and Vince Carter, Lopez is the 3rd leading scorer just ahead of Yi Jianlian who seems destined to be the center of an international incident due to either him lying about his age or in a couple of years being voted into an All-Star game he has no business playing in. In other words the Nets don't have a lot of scoring threats. The Blazers on the other hand have 5 different players who average 10 points or more and this despite playing at the slowest pace in the league, giving Oden fewer chances to accumulate stats.

Finally, Greg's basketball potential has been talked about for years. Here are some interesting Google Trends charts.

First a chart of Google searches of Greg Oden (blue) versus Brook Lopez (red):


Oden was being searched for on Google a full 2 years before Brook Lopez was. Another graph, this time with Greg Oden (blue), Kevin Durant (red) and OJ Mayo (orange) as the search subjects



Kevin Durant and OJ Mayo where showing up in Google searches a couple months behind Oden (who himself was about 1 year behind LeBron James). Why the digression into Google Trend charts? For Greg Oden to not become a great center it will be a black spot on the entire scouting system as lots of people had heard about him (evidenced by the Google Trends charts) and everyone was certain that he was going to be great. When there is that much consensus among scouts about the singularly of a talent, as there was in the cases of LeBron, Oden and Mayo, those talents almost never fail.

MTV Cribs: Josh Howard

Josh shows off his cars with some sweet spinners

MTV Cribs - MTV Shows

MTV Cribs: TJ Houshmandzadeh

Former Oregon State great TJ Houshmandzadeh shows off his house that much like Jerry Stackhouse has more bathrooms than bedrooms.

MTV Cribs - MTV Shows

MTV Cribs: Jerry Stackhouse

Why does Jerry Stackhouse's house in Detroit have more bathrooms than bedrooms?

MTV Cribs: Carmelo Anthony

Showing off the penthouse he had during his rookie year as well as his '64 Lincoln.

MTV Cribs: Gary Payton

While showing off his bedroom in his Las Vegas home, a clip from Bloodsport is showing on one of the TVs.

MTV Cribs: Zach Randolph

A classic episode full of unintentional comedy. Probably the second most classic video involving Zach Randolph in the internet. Highlights:

• "I don't eat meat. I eat turkey meat, a little chicken, but I am trying to work on cooking that."
• "This is a powerful dude here" refering to Nelson Mandella
• Members of The Hoop Family are over playing video games
• His pitbulls, which is interesting given his friendship with Qyntel Woods
• About his favorite car a '74 Eldorado "This is a car you take your baby out in the summer"

MTV Cribs: Jason Kidd

There isn't too much exciting here as Jason seems totally domesticated by his wife. There wasn't even a "Scarface" poster. Which makes his cookie throwing incident even stranger.

MTV Cribs: Steve Francis

Highlights of Stevie Franchise's Houston pad:

• His '64 Impala
• His Rolls Royce with an umbrella holder inside the door
• His in home barber shop

MTV Cribs: Rasheed Wallace

Back in his Portland days, Rasheed Wallace had MTV Cribs over to his place. Some highlights:

• The urinal in his bathroom
• When talking about his '96 Ford Bronco that he drives around he says "A lot of my teammates still call me O.J."
• Rasheed again "I keep all my cars dirty. A'int no reason to keep 'em clean out here in Portland. I rains so much, as soon as you get your car washed, it's gonna rain.

Blazers Dodge the Stern Hand of NBA Fine-age

The NBA announced that they are not going to levy a fine against the Portland Trailblazers for sending an e-mail that threatened legal action if Darius Miles was signed solely to impact the Blazers' salary cap and luxury tax situation. This set off a firestorm of activities around the NBA and included Darius Miles being signed by Memphis.

I think that was most people missed in the e-mail was that if a team was interested in what Darius could do on the basketball court then they were fine him being signed. But if a team signed Miles solely to hurt Portland financially then the Blazers were going to take you to court. So I am unsurprised that the NBA felt that no fine was warranted.

I am however surprised at the Players Union President Billy Hunter's reaction to the Darius Miles saga. Unions are supposed to protect the rights of their members. Teams that are looking at Darius solely as a means to receive a free luxury tax payment from the Blazers are using Darius, demeaning him as a player, and are in the long term harming his ability to find gainful employment in the league based on his basketball skills. You might think that a union would support actions that might help their members be gainfully employed, instead of kicked to the curb once they have been used up. But I think that would be asking too much of Billy Hunter to react in a logical way. From the ESPN.com article:

Hunter declined to positively or negatively characterize the lack of punishment for the Blazers and their billionaire owner by commissioner David Stern.

"That's something we have to study, but clearly it's within the jurisdiction of the league what they want to do," Hunter told ESPN.com "I certainly felt conduct of the Trail Blazers was outrageous, and we'll monitor things from here to see if any additional action necessary.

"But the reality of the situation is that we were able to put things back in place, and he signed. Had someone not decided to sign him because of the e-mail, we'd take a different posture. But he hasn't suffered any damage or loss," Hunter said.

Part of the reason that Darius suffered no damage was that a team that apparently thinks he can skill ball signed him. Of course they aren't going to be scared off by an e-mail because they are doing those things that the e-mail itself said won't bring legal action. I sometimes wonder how Billy Hunter became president of a visible union. My most indelible memory of Billy is when he along with David Stern testified before Congress about the NBA's drug testing policies:

Billy Hunter, executive director of the N.B.A. players union, piqued the subcommittee's interest with testimony that since 1999, only 3 of 4,200 tests in the league had been positive for steroids.

Veteran players are tested only during training camp, but rookies are tested four times during the season.

Stearns suggested that one test in the preseason for veterans was not enough to detect subsequent drug use. Hunter said, in effect, that other players had to report a veteran's drug use.

"When the policy was adopted, we didn't have the problem," Hunter said.

Stearns replied, "I'd suggest you don't know if you have a problem if you don't test."

"We don't have a problem," Hunter said.

Later, Stearns asked how reasonable cause could be found to test a veteran during the season. "By performance," Hunter said.

"By performance?" Stearns said, incredulously.

"Yes," Hunter said, noting that "someone will invariably say, 'My man's on something.' "

Obviously Billy Hunter learned nothing from baseball's experience with drugs.

NBA Top Plays 1/13/09

As Darius Miles Turns

When Darius Miles was released by the Grizzles, the Blazers tried to claim him off of waivers in order to maintain their salary cap space and avoid the luxury tax. The NBA denied this request as it was trying to circumvent salary cap rules.
Here is a good explanation of the situation the Blazers were stuck in from the Blazers Edge comment section and why the Blazers really couldn't win with Darius' injury situation and the letter of the Collective Barganing Agreement:

The underlying issue is that there is a problem with the rules – not necessarily with the Blazers nor Miles. In the first place, the Blazers retired Miles based on the recommendation of a Doctor selected by the NBA and the Players association. In sum, they could not have continued to play Miles given that doctors decision that continued playing was likely to result in a permanent disability.

This has, from the beginning, put the Blazers at a disadvantage. They could not encourage Miles to continue playing for them – given the ruling. However, Miles could continue to try to play basketball – but only if it was for some other team. He is, after all, the ultimate decider as to whether or not he wants to ignore the advice of the doctors and risk permanent injury.

So, the Blazers were left with a player that they could not play – but someone else could.

Think about how absurd this is. They had three options. None good. If they kept him on the team, paid his salary, but refused to play him – Darius would have been angry and disruptive. Darius – after all, want’s to play. Or at least try to play. So this wasn’t a good option.

Secondly, they could have tried to trade him. Now you know this was an option. Not a team in the leaque was willing to engage in any "kind" of trade for a player that had been determined by the NBA to be unable to continue playing. So this one’s a joke.

Thirdly, they could release him – as they did. In fact, this was the only option. The Blazers could not trade him, and because of the Doctors ruling, could not play him – which he wanted to do.

So now, they’re left with the results of the simple fact that if the NBA and the Players Association determines a player to be unfit to continue playing – that they don’t enforce that ruling on the player. Instead, they leave a loop hole, and leave it up to the player. And there’s the rub.

The Blazers lose no matter what they do. Miles, after all, has already publicly admitted that he no longer has the same skills, nor the leaping ability that he once had. He already has been affected by his injury. He is, in sum, damaged goods. However, the NBA and the Players Association do not want to tell Miles what is already obvious. And that should be their job.

After all, what’s the point of having a procedure to medically determine whether or not a player is medically unfit to continue playing, if you don’t enforce it on the player?

How Good is LeBron James?

How good is LeBron James? How does the force of nature that is dominating the NBA compare to all-time greats? On Basketball-Reference.com has is a handy tool that calculates the probability that a player will be in the hall of fame if that player retired today. Here are the active players that this tool deems the most likely to be in the hall of fame:

1. Shaquille O'Neal -100%
2. Tim Duncan -100%
3. Kobe Bryant -100%
4. Kevin Garnett -100%
5. Allen Iverson -100%
6. LeBron James - 99.87%
7. Dirk Nowitzki - 99.73%

This list is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, even though Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, KG and The Answer all have 100% probabilities there is a clear pecking order among themselves. Second, right behind those 5 icons of the game sits LeBron James, who will likely join those players as he adds to his resume with MVPs and championships. Presently LeBron sits at #33 in All-Time Hall of fame probability and sits between Elvin Hayes and Patrick Ewing.

NBA Top 10 1/12/09

TV's influence on the College Football Schedule

The Oregon Ducks are looking at moving their game against the Oregon State Beavers to a Thursday in order for the game to be shown on ESPN and net the schools and extra $300,000. Many of the fans from both schools aren't enthused about this development.

However, it seems that such things are inevitable in today's sports landscape. As Tom Verducci said in an article about how to improve the World Series:

The biggest change in sports over the past quarter century is that the games are no longer athletic competition that happens to be televised, but rather television programming that happens to be athletic competition.

With the amount of money that is to be had from televised games, along with the role that college football has in balancing the budget for the entire athletic department, the pressure, and the desire to increase the visibility of the team and the university it is difficult to turn your back on the money in order to preserve the tradition of playing college football on Saturdays.

MLB Hall of Fame Inductees Announced

Jim Rice and Rickey Henderson were voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame today. While Jim Rice making it in his final year of eligibility is news, I find it interesting that Rickey Henderson only got 94.8% of the vote. Rickey's career stats are staggering. He has scored more runs and stolen more bases than any one ever to play the game. He is second in times walked behind Barry Bonds, although you could argue that Bonds' walk record should receive the same asterisk that his home run record has been given by many. He hit for power, he hit for a good average, played good defense and scored a lot of runs. What more do the 28 people that didn't vote for him want in a hall of famer?

Brandon Roy

Because Brandon Roy doesn't dunk on a lot of people like Josh Smith, he is commonly referred to as not very athletic. I think this video is an effective counter argument.

NBA Top 10 1/11/09

More Darius Miles News

The Darius Miles news has dominated the NBA news this week. A blog was created solely to help set the record straight due to most people not understanding what is actually going on.
The blog is:
http://dariusfacts.blogspot.com/

The first post has a great time line of the events of the Darius Miles medical retirement saga:

Here’s why Darius received a medical retirement and the aftermath:

1. Darius injured his knee.
2. Darius had microfracture surgery, and had setbacks. He didn’t play for two years.
3. The Blazers doctors found that his cartilage didn’t regrow; this is dangerous. His knee is scraping bone-on-bone.
4. The Blazers doctors recommended he not play again, and retire. They sent a request to the league.
5. The NBA and Darius Miles NBA Players Association sent an independent doctor to investigate.
6. The independent doctor (representing Darius!) said: Darius could play again, but at extreme risk to his knee, likely forcing a full knee replacement later.
7. The NBA allowed his medical retirement due to the severity of his condition. He’s still getting his full paycheck.
8. Darius signed paperwork stating he understands the doctor’s findings.

Time Passes.

9. Darius starts a comeback. Even though he was told by his own (NBA PA) doctor that playing again will likely force knee replacement or reconstruction, he wants to anyway.
10. He plays a few preseason games, with minimal impact.
11. Memphis signs him with just enough time to get 10 suspension games in before the non-guarantee deadline, then plays him in a few games and releases him.
12. News reports say the preseason games count. If a team plays him two more games, just for a minute, Portland loses cap, goes into luxury tax, and non-tax teams get over $200,000 apiece.
13. Portland sends out a private note stating “If you want to play him to play him, great. If you want to play him to screw us over, or make additional money off us, that’s against NBA principles and we’ll fight it”

NBA Top 5 1/10/09

Lance Mackey pulls out of the Yukon Quest

Lance Mackey has decided to withdraw from the Yukon Quest, sometimes known as "Alaska's other 1000 mile dog sled race". He is training an Iditarod rookie as well as leasing him dogs from his kennel and doesn't have enough dogs to run in both the Yukon Quest and the Iditarod this year. Lance is the only musher in history to win both the Iditarod and the Yukon Quest in the same year, which feat he accomplished in each of the past 2 years. He also is a throat cancer survivor and can't swallow food without drinking water, which I imagine is a touch problematic when it is -40 degrees on the trail.

The Grizzlies sign D-Miles

The Memphis Grizzlies signed Darius Miles to a 10-day contract, a day after Portland sent an e-mail to the league threatening legal action if Miles was signed with the sole intent of harming Portland financially.

While most everyone around has called Portland everything from stupid to arrogant and worse, there is a lot more to this story than the common refrain of "Portland messed up and are crybabies about it"

Consider:

• It has been commonly said that Miles didn't have a career ending injury. After undergoing microfracture surgery, Miles' knee never regrew the cartilige that the surgery is intended to regrow, thus his knee is rubbing bone on bone. When the independent doctor chosen joined by the league and the player association (who are now filing a grievance against the Blazers) ruled that the injury was career ending it wasn't because he could no longer play basketball at a professional level but because playing continuing to play basketball would further damage the knee such that long term issues requiring knee replacement surgery would almost certainly follow. Thus playing basketball, in the eyes of the doctor, became a situtation so hazardous to Mile's ability to live a normal life that it was in Miles' best interests to retire. So while this injury wasn't career ending in the same way that losing a limb would be, in the eyes of the doctor playing basketball is deterimental to his long term health and as such he shouldn't be doing it. This is similar to why Cutino Mobley retired. He was diagnosed with a heart condition that made it dangerous to play basketball, so he retired because of it, and not because he lacked the ability to play. Had the condition been discovered prior to his trade to the Knicks (or had the Knicks backed away from the trade because of it) the Clippers could have used the same process as the Blazers for salary cap relief
• Part of the confusion lies within the Collective Bargining Agreement itself. In the relevant section that guides this process (Article VII, Section 4), the only thing guide the definition of career ending injury is this:  

  The determination of whether a player has suffered a career-ending injury or illness shall be made by a physician selected jointly by the NBA and the Players Association.

  This is a different standard than the commonly applied "He is playing in games so the injury obviously isn't career ending".
• By sending the e-mail the Blazers weren't saying "Don't sign Miles". They were saying "If you are thinking about signing Miles, make sure that you do so because his basketball abilities and not because you want a free luxury tax payment from us" Here is what the author of the famous e-mail said: 

  our purpose here was not in any way to keep Darius from being able to play. If he can come back and help a team to win and play at a level on the court that is, again, helps the team, then we have no problem with that at all. Our issue is that if a team is trying to do something malicious to hurt us financially. And that’s why we took the action that we did.

• The ideas that some people are proposing that they sign Miles, play him for 2 minutes in 2 games just to stick it to Portland is in my opinion demeaning to Miles. In that case you are looking a him solely for your personal profit and not as someone who is looking at rebuilding his career (although at potential personal harm). While it is the job of Darius' agent to get Darius a job I would think that the agent is savvy enough to stay away from those situations where Darius would be exploited in such a fashion.

In the end, it seems like the process in the Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn't adequately proctect the Blazers in this situation. Had the Blazers done nothing and kept Miles' contract on the books, that contract would be very valuable as it expires in 2010 when every team in the league is trying to create cap space on the off chance that they will be able to sign LeBron James or one of the plethora of top players who will be free agents during that summer. Instead,the Blazers will lose the ability to trade an expiring contract AND not be able to use the services of a basketball player. The best solution for all parties (the Blazers, the NBA and Darius) would be for the NBA and the Players association to rework the language of that part of the CBA so that both the team and the player are protected in that case. 

NBA Top 10 1/10/09

Trailblazers Issue Legal Warning to the Rest of the Association

As reported by SI and Yahoo!, the Trailblazers have sent an e-mail to the rest of league warning potential legal action if Darius Miles is signed with the intent of having Miles' contract to go back on Portland's books, causing the Blazers to cross the luxury tax threshold and tie up some of their salary cap space in the offseason. While this may seem to some to be grasping at straws to maintain cap space, I see this as a brilliant move by the Blazers.

The backstory of this saga is convoluted. Last year, Darius was given a medical retirement by an independent doctor who deemed that Miles would suffer permenant knee damage and would likely require knee replacement if he continued to play in the NBA. This caused Miles contract to be removed from Portland's books with the caveat that if Miles played in 10 games that Mile's contract would be Portland's responsibility once again. During the offseason, it was announced that Darius would need to serve a 10 game suspension for violating the leagues substance abuse policies before he could play. Despite all this he played in 6 pre-season games for the Celtics and was cut before the start of the season. Recently Miles signed a non-guaranteed contract with Memphis, served his suspension, played in 2 games before being released on the eve of the date when his contract would become guaranteed for the rest of the season. When Miles was cut it was thought that he still needed to play in 8 more games before his contract came back to bite the Blazers. But the day after being cut Yahoo! reported that despite what had been previously assumed, the 6 pre-season games counted and that Portland knew this all along and wanted to keep it all on the down-low. With Miles only 2 games away from messing up Portland's free agent chances (“Portland is screwed.” one Eastern Conference executive was quoted as saying) a team would only need to sign him to a 10-day contract at a veteran's minimum, play him twice for token minutes and Portland goes from being a "have" to a "have not".

Which brings us back to the Blazers e-mail. In the comments of one of the two posts about this on Blazers Edge (the 2nd was put up because the other one got too big to handle) the following legal analysis was given:

at one of my property lectures an intellectual property attorney introduced me to the concept of worst-case-scenario time travel. Imagine that someone has infringed upon your clients patent and you’ve not taken measures to protect him and you are in front of a jury. If you could go back in time, what would you have done differently so that you could tell it to the jury? Figure out what that is and do it now, beforehand.

The Blazers are setting up a "bad faith" argument. They are laying the foundation for a formal complaint. If this deters suitors for Miles, all the better. Also, since Miles was ruled unfit to play by an impartial doctor and he is still getting his money, it would be hard for him to push a case against PDX because the detriment to PDX would be unconscionable. He gets his 9mil, and Blazers are both penalized and unable to use his services when neither had reached any sort of buy-out agreement.

Darius will probably play, and PDX will probably appeal, and may use media articles to demonstrate that GM’s knew of the detriment to PDX and played Darius Miles in bad faith to hurt PDX’s capspace. That whole fiduciary duty thing holds quite a bit of weight, holds you to a higher standard of ethics. If it even smells like bad faith in a fiduciary relationship, it probably won’t go well for the "bad-faith-er" (not a legal term, but it’s more simple than "tortfeasor")

This will probably not be over for a while…

More legal analysis from BlazersEdge:

my fancy pants Ivy league lawyer fiancee says the Blazers are likely okay in all scenarios.

FIRST: the medical retirement rules were not made with this situation in mind. It was written to prevent teams from getting out of big bad deals and then re-signing the player, not for guys deemed by independent docs to be too injured to play anymore and then to make a come back. The Blazers would appeal the money going back on the cap and likely win.

SECOND: Paul Allen is lawyered up out the wazoo, as would be Larry “I ran Nike and know what I’m doing” Miller. This has been risk assessed and gone over a billion times by other fancy pants Ivy League lawyers. It would be much easier to prove a franchise hurt another franchise’ business by signing Miles with no intention to really play him in this VERY UNIQUE situation than it is the Blazers preventing Darius from getting another job, after being cut a few times by different teams after being medically retired and STILL not in good enough shape after over 2 years of rehab.

Darius hasn’t been able to keep a roster spot in the best situation in the league for him, the Grizzlies. They had the space, were bad, and took a chance on him. He wasn’t worth the marginal salary it would take to keep him (a vet minimum salary is also half paid for by the NBA, making it even cheaper). Darius has had plenty of chances to find a job and has been unsuccessful. The Blazers letter comes out after this, so it didn’t prevent him from getting work.

Darius could sue, but he won’t. He will lose, and doesn’t have nearly the resources PA does.

Ethical or not, it doesn’t matter. This frightens off anyone who might have the bright idea of signing Miles to muck with the Blazers, or to make a few extra hundred thousand from the luxury tax payment they’d get from Portland being in luxury tax land. Do you, struggling owner of the Grizzlies, want to battle with PA’s billions? Heck nah, phoo!

This is a strong arm tactic that makes sense from the Blazers perspective, and would be MUCH more unethical if it was sent out before Darius had plenty of chances to find a job.

Darius’ injury has robbed him of his athleticism, which was the only thing he had before. I rooted for Darius to make a team personally, as I hate promising careers being ended because of injury. He is obviously not ever going to be the same again, which should be expected after the YEARS of doctor examinations and tests by independent docs and the insurance companies.

The Blazers were obviously at least a little worried that another team would try to mess with us, so they made clear they wouldn’t sit back and let it happen easily. Darius doesn’t have the resources even if he had a case, and he doesn’t likely have a case as he hasn’t been able to get a job on his own before this.

I’m sure this won’t help, but the Blazers only don’t have a case if Miles actually sticks somewhere and plays. If anyone wanted him and he was capable of playing, HE WOULD BE PLAYING.

This is a wierd situation with no precedent. I don’t blame the Blazers for being aggressive, and you can probably assume our aggressiveness will pay off for us. The aggressive team gets the calls, after all.

I am only engaged to a smarty pants lawyer, and my pa is a lawyer, and one of my sisters. I am not an expert. But this isn’t as bad as all that. Like always with the Miles situation, we just gotta wait and see.

Rest assured the Blazers have, uh, pretty good legal advice. Billions of dollars still buys good advice these days.

This will be interesting to see how this plays out because the Blazers seem poised to be a major player in the league for years to come. With the extra cap space in this offseason, which will be the last offseason with cap space for quite some time, the Blazers would be one of the prime destinations for the 2009 free agent class. WIthout it who knows?

NBA Top Plays 1/8/2008

Florida BCS Champs

The Florida Gators are the BCS champs.

Back in 2006, after Michigan had played Ohio State closer than any other team that season some of the Michigan grads that I know were openly hoping for a rematch in the BCS title game. Then one of my buddies said "Florida should play for it because they took care of business when they needed to", and the Michigan grads had nothing to say after that.

This Florida team seems much the same way. When it comes time to take care of business, they take care of business. That is probably the best thing that you can say about a football team.

ACC Commish and the BCS

In a wholly expected move, the ACC commissioner came out in favor of the legality of the BCS. Here is a money quote:

"The BCS provided a platform for Utah to show the nation what a terrific football team they had this year." Swofford said. "Preceding the BCS, I don't know if that platform would have been there."

Without the BCS the Utes probably would have ended up playing in the Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona. This would have proven how good the Utes were much like the Utes' victory over Pittsburgh in the Fiesta bowl during their other undefeated season, which is to say not much. The commish goes on to say that conferences which receive automatic bids is up for review which conceivably could open the door for the Mountain West to receive an auto-bid. This would probably come at the cost of the automation bid for the ACC or the Big East.

Whatever happens, while the BCS doesn't give as elegant of a championship picture as a full tournament would, a playoff system wouldn't solve the problems. The NCAA mens basketball tournament is so popular, not because of it a playoff and because it provides a rational method for choosing a champion, but because there are so many games. Of the 63 games in the tournament only a few of them are memorable due to their exciting finishes. Proponents of the playoff system want to recreate the excitement of 63 games in 7 games, which isn't going to happen as there are invariably stinker games or blow outs. Further because their are so many teams included in the NCAA mens basketball tournament teams there aren't many teams that have a legitimate gripe about not getting in. An 8 team playoff wouldn't be able to achieve that as the hated methods for choosing the BCS teams would likely be used to select and seed the teams in a playoff.

Also because there are only 8 teams even more teams are marginalized and teams that had quality seasons are not rewarded in any sort of fashion under a proposed 8 team playoff for football. Thus the fans of teams that aren't elite (and the elite teams in college football have much more of a consolidated position than in mens basketball) would be left out of the playoff. Under an 8 team playoff teams most of the top 25 teams would be left out in the cold, this doesn't happen in basketball as virtually all of the #25 teams in the polls make the playoffs. Therefore the fans of those teams would be poorer served under a playoff system than the status quo of the bowls, unlike what some people say.

Rookie Prank

The Sacramento Kings pranked rookie Jason Thompson for not fulfilling his rookie role of bringing bagels to practice. When Spencer Hawes calls a car detailer and talks about the popcorn in the whip slays me.



(Tip of the cap to Larry Brown Sports)

NBA Top Plays 1/7/09

Reggie Bush=Microfractured

Reggie Bush underwent microfracture surgery and will probably miss all of next season rehabbing. I was one of those who were shocked when he didn't go #1 overall in the NFL draft. He was electric in college. More than any other player you felt he could score any time he touched the ball.



Now it is looking like he won't live up to the hype because his body is betraying him. Shame.

This is tiresome

Another day, another piece saying that Utah should be the national champion. Today Rick Reilly tries to argue it out. Some of his logic:

Just take a look at the teams that think they're worthy of being called national champs:

USC? Great year. Wonderful. Let's all go to SkyBar and celebrate. But it lost to Oregon State, a team Utah beat.

I can't stand the "team X beat team Y who beat team Z, ergo team X is better than team Z" line of reasoning for determining who is a better team. First, it too easily drops into circular logic like:
- Stanford beat Oregon State who beat USC who beat Stanford OR
- Penn State beat Oregon State who beat USC who beat Penn State

I also hate that type of logic because it completely disregards the importance of home field advantage in college football. At the beginning of every year you here about how some teams are unlikely to run the table of their conference and to support that argument they will list off their difficult road games. What was Utah's most difficult road game? Against Air Force. That was the only road game they played against a bowl bound opponent during the regular season. Florida played 2 such games (Vandy and Florida State), Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field and played 2 other difficult road games (Texas Tech and Kansas) and USC played 2 games of this nature as well (Oregon State and Utah).

Thirdly this type of logic negates how the game was won. Utah was aided by a dubious pass interference call on a tying 2pt conversion with 1 minute left. Due to the call they got a second shot and got in. If that one call doesn't happen then Utah loses and there goes their claim at being the best team in college football.

More Reilly:

So that's it. Utah is the national champion. The Utes should probably have two now, actually. They went undefeated in 2004, too, and their coach still thinks they were the best team in the land. Smart fella named Urban Meyer. Coaches Florida now.

This forgets that Utah wasn't the only undefeated team in 2004 as USC and Auburn also went undefeated.

Still more Reilly:

It was Utah's eighth straight bowl win, the nation's longest streak. Among the losers during that run? Let's see USC, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and now the legendary Houndstooth Hats.

I see that the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl on this debate as the current players on both Utah were still in junior high.

Repeat after me: Utah isn't the #1 team in the nation.

NBA Top Ten Plays 1/6/09

Utah Attorney General thinks that BCS is a monopoly

Mark Shurtleff, the attorney general for the state of Utah is looking into whether or not the BCS breaks anti-trust laws.

"We've established that from the very first day, from the very first kickoff in the college season, more than half of the schools are put on an unlevel playing field," Shurtleff said Tuesday. "They will never be allowed to play for a national championship."


"It's not about bragging rights. It's a multimillion dollar -- hundreds of millions -- business where the BCS schools get richer and non-BCS get poorer," Shurtleff said.

I think that this whole thing, along with the Utah for National Championship movement, is silly. Shurtleff's solution is to create a playoff. For all of the failings of the BCS, a playoff is not the solution to these problems.

First lets assume that an 8-team playoff is created. For an 8-team playoff to be truly workable and to assure that the top 8 teams are in the playoff there cannot be any automatic bids. The conferences that currently have automatic BCS bids won't agree voluntarily to possibly give up their seat to the party. And there would be years where the champion of the Pac-10, Big 12, Big 10, ACC, SEC, or the Big East is not included in the playoff. In the 10 years of the BCS the following champions of the BCS conferences (as determined by who got the autobid in the BCS) were ranked outside of the top 8:

• Big 10 - Wisconsin (1998, #9), Purdue (2000, outside of the top 15), Michigan (2004, #13)
• Big XII - Kansas State (2003, #10), Oklahoma (2006, #10)
• ACC - Florida State (2002, #14 & 2005, #22), Wake Forest (2006, #14), Virginia Tech (2008, #19)
• SEC - LSU (2001, #13)
• Pac-10 - Stanford (1999, outside of the top 15)
• Big East - Syracuse (1998, #15), Miami (FL) (2003, #9), Pittsburgh (2004, #21), West Virginia (2005, #11 & 2007, #9), Cincinnati (2008, #12)

So in 10 years of the BCS every major conference would have been affected (although some more than others, if this doesn't show how the Big XII, Pac-10 and SEC are better than all of the other football conferences, I don't know what will). In other words with the champions of the ACC and Big East consistently being left out of the playoff system those conferences will become increasingly marginalized. Thus the fear of the Utah AG of the BCS enriching the rich will happen even in a playoff system.

Second, the BCS wasn't set-up to anoint a national champion. Here is a sampling of recent NCAA champions in various sports with their championship trophy:


And here is what the BCS trophy looks like:

A crystal football. Not only that, but instead of having the NCAA logo prominently displayed you see the logo of a major BCS sponsor. The BCS was set-up to create better bowl matchups than there otherwise would have been and to make money due to the increase exposure of those games. And the BCS has done a good job of that.

Third, having an 8 team playoff would also likely kill off all interest in the bowl games like the Cotton Bowl, Holiday bowl, etc. much like how the NIT is largely forgotten about in relation to the NCAA mens basketball tournament. Thus even fewer teams get to celebrate a successful year with the reward of a bowl game and the rich continue to get richer.

NBA Top 5 Plays 1/5/2009

Beavers win first Pac-10 game

The Beavers won with first Pac-10 game since Feburary of 2007 last night defeating USC in OT 62-58. Needless to say, the fans are pretty excited about this. Hopefully this can be something that the Beavers will be able to build on.

NBA Top 10 Plays 1/4/2009

Batum serves up the facial for the #1 play

NBA Top Plays 1/3/2009

Play #3 was my favorite.

NBA Top 10 Plays from 1/2/2009

I have no idea why Pau Gasol thought that it was necessary to go between his legs on the fast break.

Utah the #1 team? Get real

With Utah finishing as the only undefeated team in college football, some people think that they have a case for a national title. I find that ridiculous. If what are viewed as their 4 big wins before the bowl season only one of them Michigan (who ended the season 3-9) occurred on the road. The wins against TCU, BYU and Oregon State all occurred at home. Also the Oregon State win should be viewed with a huge grain of salt as Utah was aided by an exceedingly questionable call that gave them a second shot at a tying 2-point conversion with a minute left.

As for the Sugar Bowl victory consider the following. Alabama suspended their All-America left tackle for the game which undoubtedly had an impact of Alabama's difficulties running the football and protecting the quarterback. Also even before the SEC Championship game Alabama wasn't even considered to be the best team in their own conference as they were 10 point underdogs.

Further Alabama fell victim to what I call "The Letdown Theory". When a team has been working towards a goal all season, be it a BCS bowl or a set in the NCAA mens basketball tournament and fall short due, they often have such a hard time recovering from the disappointment. Back in 2004, Cal went 10-1 in regular season play with the only loss coming by 6 points at an undefeated USC. Despite this they were left out of the BCS bowls and lost to Texas Tech in a Holiday Bowl that they really didn't want to be in. Or consider the last team to be left out of the NCAA tournament often losses their first game in the NIT. I find it highly likely that Alabama taking a lead into the 4th quarter of the SEC Championship game and being 15 minutes of football away from playing for a national title were a little bummed out about the turn that their season took and consequently didn't prepare for Utah as they should have.

Is Utah one of the top 10 teams in the country? Yes, they are probably one of the top 5 teams. But are they better than USC, Texas, Oklahoma and Florida? Not a chance.

Pac-10 Opener

The Beavers lost their Pac-10 opener to UCLA 69-46, which wasn't an unexpected event. Last time the Beavers faced UCLA they lost 84-49 so if the Beavers lop other 20 points off of the final margin next time they play it will be a ballgame. But it was nice to see that the Beavers played the Bruins almost even in the 2nd half. Whether the Bruins took their collective foot off of the gas or the Beavers executed better (or a combination of the 2) isn't nearly as good to see as it is that the Beavers kept on fighting even though the chances of them winning were slim to none.

I think that there will be some games like this as the Beavers lift themselves off of the rock bottom that they hit last season. But with the Beavers working hard on improving their games, which Coach Robinson attributed to their improved shooting percentages from last season, success is only a matter of time.